What is a PATTERN score?
PATTERN (the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs) is the risk-assessment instrument the First Step Act required in 18 U.S.C. § 3632(a); it scores every federal prisoner minimum, low, medium, or high risk of recidivism. The level controls First Step Act credit speed and application: two consecutive minimum/low assessments raise earning from 10 to 15 days per 30, and a minimum/low level (or warden approval) is required to have credits applied toward release. The score is recomputed at each program review — normally every 180 days — from items like age, disciplinary history, and program completions, most of which can move over time.
Reviewed against 18 U.S.C. § 3632 and BOP's published PATTERN materials (bop.gov/inmates/fsa). Last updated .
What goes into the score?
PATTERN is a points instrument with separate versions for men and women and separate scales for general and violent recidivism. The published items include:
- Age at assessment (younger scores higher) — this item alone means scores drift down over a long sentence.
- Disciplinary history — number and seriousness of incident reports, and time since the last one (dynamic: clear conduct lowers it).
- Program and work performance — completed EBRR programs, education, UNICOR and work assignments (dynamic).
- Criminal history score and whether the current offense was violent (static).
- Escape history and detainer-related items (largely static).
DOJ publishes the instrument, its items, and cut points in its First Step Act annual reports and on BOP's FSA pages — the scoresheet itself is not secret, which is what makes an arithmetic check possible.
Why does the level matter so much for release dates?
| PATTERN state | FSA earning rate | Credits applicable toward release? |
|---|---|---|
| Medium or high | 10 days / 30 | No (absent warden approval) |
| Minimum or low (1st assessment) | 10 days / 30 | Yes |
| Minimum or low (2+ consecutive) | 15 days / 30 | Yes |
Over a five-year sentence, the difference between medium and sustained low is roughly a year of freedom: slower earning and blocked application versus 15-day earning plus application toward supervised release and prerelease custody. The OutDate calculator models the assessment timeline explicitly, including the two-assessment enhancement rule.
Can a PATTERN score be challenged?
- Get the scoresheet. The person can request their FSA assessment (the "Insight" individualized needs plan) from the Unit Team — the item-by-item points are on it.
- Check the static items against the presentence report: criminal history points, violent-offense coding, age brackets. Coding errors here are the most common and most fixable.
- Check the dynamic items — an incident report that was expunged on appeal, a completed program not credited, a work assignment missing.
- Raise arithmetic errors at the program review, and if uncorrected, file the administrative remedy chain with the specific item and the document proving it wrong.
Free calculator
Run the numbers for your person
The free OutDate calculator applies these rules to a real sentence — Good Conduct Time, First Step Act credits, halfway house and RDAP dates — with every assumption listed next to the answer. No account needed; nothing is stored.
Open the federal release date calculatorFrequently asked questions
How often is a PATTERN score updated?
At each regularly scheduled program review — generally every 180 days, moving to every 90 days within about 18 months of release (28 C.F.R. § 523.44 and BOP policy). A new incident report or program completion shows up at the next reassessment.
What PATTERN level do you need for early release?
To have FSA credits applied toward supervised-release transfer, the last assessment must be minimum or low (18 U.S.C. § 3624(g)(1)(D)); for prerelease custody, the last two assessments generally must be, unless the warden approves otherwise.
Can a violent current offense ever reach low PATTERN?
Yes — the offense adds static points, but age, clean conduct, and programming can still bring the total under the low cut point for many people. (A § 3632(d)(4)(D)-listed conviction blocks credits entirely regardless of score.)
Primary sources
Everything on this page is drawn from the statutes, regulations, and BOP program statements below — read them directly:
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Estimates, not promises
This page describes federal law and Bureau of Prisons policy in general terms for education. It is not legal advice, it doesn't account for the facts of any individual case, and no attorney–client relationship is created by reading it. The BOP makes all final release-date determinations. Have an attorney review anything before you file it. Built by OutDate, the federal release date calculator.